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Independiente Petrolero vs The Strongest — Primera División 2026

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
The Strongest
The Strongest
12/1/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 24Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Independiente Petrolero41%
×Draw25%
The Strongest35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.54
The Strongest
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 132 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
The Strongest
1.60

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
The Strongest
1.32

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

The Strongest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
65%
Independiente Petrolero or The Strongest
75%
Draw or The Strongest
59%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
20%
The Strongest wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
79%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
45%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
20%
The Strongest 1+ goals
76%
The Strongest 2+ goals
41%
The Strongest 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
54%
The Strongest (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

The Strongest away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.32 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + The Strongest defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

The Strongest attack 1.60 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
41%
level
25%
The Strongest scores more
35%

Independiente Petrolero at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Independiente Petrolero 0–2 The Strongest

The Strongest beat Independiente Petrolero 2-0 in Primera División on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.