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Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo — Primera División 2026

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo
9/27/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 23Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Independiente Petrolero56%
×Draw23%
Real Tomayapo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.84
Real Tomayapo
1.04

Independiente Petrolero creates 77% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 89 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
Real Tomayapo
0.88

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
Real Tomayapo
1.94

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Real Tomayapo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
79%
Independiente Petrolero or Real Tomayapo
77%
Draw or Real Tomayapo
44%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
32%
Real Tomayapo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
84%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
55%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
28%
Real Tomayapo 1+ goals
65%
Real Tomayapo 2+ goals
28%
Real Tomayapo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
73%
Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Real Tomayapo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.94 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.84

Real Tomayapo attack 0.88 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
56%
level
23%
Real Tomayapo scores more
21%

Independiente Petrolero at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo

Independiente Petrolero beat Real Tomayapo 2-1 in Primera División on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.