Independiente Petrolero 2–1 Real Tomayapo

Independiente Petrolero

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Real Tomayapo

G. Cristaldo 36'

J. Godoy 31' (pen)

O. Becerra 53'

12/4/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 25Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Independiente Petrolero56%

×Draw23%

Real Tomayapo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchReal Tomayapo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.04

Independiente Petrolero

1.84

Real Tomayapo

1.04

Independiente Petrolero creates 77% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 89 away

1.75

creates per match

0.88

1.21

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.75

Real Tomayapo

0.88

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.21

Real Tomayapo

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Real Tomayapo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw

79%

Independiente Petrolero or Real Tomayapo

77%

Draw or Real Tomayapo

44%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

32%

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

84%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

55%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

28%

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

65%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

28%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

73%

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Real Tomayapo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.94 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.84

Real Tomayapo attack 0.88 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more

56%

level

23%

Real Tomayapo scores more

21%

Independiente Petrolero at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Godoy

Independiente Petrolero · F

9.2

Match Events

24'

Mijaíl Avilés

30'

Leandro Corulo

31'

J. GodoyPenalty

36'

G. Cristaldo↳ J. Godoy

46'

L. Figueroa← P. Arano

46'

M. Tomianovic← M. Barbery

53'

O. Becerra

66'

Mijaíl Avilés

66'

Mijaíl Avilés

76'

A. Alcaraz← O. Becerra

79'

M. Romero← D. Vargas

79'

D. Navarro← A. Bejarano

90+1'

Juan Godoy

90+6'

Sergio Villamíl

90+4'

Juan Orellana

90'

A. Medina← Thomaz Santos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteReal

Overview

58%Possession42%

24Total Shots11

7Corners3

13Fouls22

Shots

24Total Shots11

7On Target3

16Off Target4

1Blocked4

13Inside Box4

11Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

340Total Passes251

259Accurate Passes182

76%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls22

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1