Independiente Petrolero 2–1 Real Potosí

Independiente Petrolero

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Potosí

D. Valda 57', 42'

B. Ubah 35'

8/4/2021

Primera División · Round 13Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Independiente Petrolero62%

×Draw21%

Real Potosí18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchReal Potosí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.02

Independiente Petrolero

2.08

Real Potosí

1.02

Independiente Petrolero creates 104% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 57 away

1.75

creates per match

0.84

1.21

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.75

Real Potosí

0.84

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.21

Real Potosí

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Real Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Real Potosí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw

82%

Independiente Petrolero or Real Potosí

79%

Draw or Real Potosí

38%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

38%

Real Potosí wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

87%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

61%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

34%

Real Potosí 1+ goals

64%

Real Potosí 2+ goals

27%

Real Potosí 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

78%

Real Potosí (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Real Potosí away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Real Potosí defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.08

Real Potosí attack 0.84 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more

62%

level

21%

Real Potosí scores more

18%

Independiente Petrolero at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

B. Ubah

42'

D. Valda

46'

Luis Alí← Y. Martínez

46'

Fran Pastor← M. Ortiz

47'

50'

57'

58'

61'

64'

J. Lovera← G. Yecerotte

65'

J. Lovera

74'

Marcelo Gomes← A. Bejarano

74'

J. Correa← M. Prost

75'

J. Méndez← J. Fernández

75'

82'

90+4'

90+6'

90+1'

L. Gutiérrez← L. Escalante

Independiente

Real

12

21

7

3

6

14

▼

Fernández

26

▼

Escalante

16

▼

Lee

25

▼

Ortiz

11

▼

Yecerotte

35

⚽

Ubah

23

Arauz

22

⚽2

Valda

6

Chiatti

30

▼

10

8

3

16

▼

Martínez

11

Godoy

34

Alaca

9

▼

Prost

Manager: J. Robledo

46'▲Luis Alí←▼Y. Martínez

74'▲Marcelo Gomes←▼A. Bejarano

74'▲J. Correa←▼M. Prost

Independiente Petrolero substitutes

17Alí20Gomes27Correa4Hinojosa24Palacios7Suárez28Arancibia33Conde18Torrico

Manager: M. Sandy

46'▲Fran Pastor←▼M. Ortiz

64'▲J. Lovera←▼G. Yecerotte

75'▲J. Méndez←▼J. Fernández

75'▲E. Cano←▼E. Um Lee

90+1'▲L. Gutiérrez←▼L. Escalante

Real Potosí substitutes

17Pastor23Lovera8Méndez36Cano10Gutiérrez31Vargas13Villa40Viruez15Melchor

Match Recap: Independiente Petrolero vs Real Potosí

Independiente Petrolero beat Real Potosí 2-1 in Primera División on August 4, 2021.

Goals: B. Ubah (35'), D. Valda (42', 57').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.

Independiente Petrolero vs Real Potosí — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Independiente Petrolero vs Real Potosí