Independiente Petrolero 0–0 Real Oruro

Independiente Petrolero

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Oruro

4/11/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Independiente Petrolero57%

×Draw21%

Real Oruro22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.25

Independiente Petrolero

2.13

Real Oruro

1.25

Independiente Petrolero creates 70% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 20 away

1.75

creates per match

1.30

1.21

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.75

Real Oruro

1.30

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.21

Real Oruro

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw

78%

Independiente Petrolero or Real Oruro

79%

Draw or Real Oruro

43%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

35%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

88%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

63%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

35%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

71%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

36%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

72%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Real Oruro defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Real Oruro attack 1.30 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more

57%

level

21%

Real Oruro scores more

22%

Independiente Petrolero at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff