Independiente Petrolero 2–0 Oriente Petrolero

Independiente Petrolero

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oriente Petrolero

Edenilson 90+5'

Thomaz Santos 22' (pen)

7/25/2023

Primera División · Round 20Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Independiente Petrolero54%

×Draw22%

Oriente Petrolero24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.19

Independiente Petrolero

1.90

Oriente Petrolero

1.19

Independiente Petrolero creates 60% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 129 away

1.75

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.75

Oriente Petrolero

1.17

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.21

Oriente Petrolero

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw

76%

Independiente Petrolero or Oriente Petrolero

78%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

46%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

31%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

85%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

56%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

29%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

70%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

33%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

69%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.05 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more

54%

level

22%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

24%

Independiente Petrolero at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Thomaz Santos

Independiente Petrolero · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

Juan GodoyPenalty cancelled

13'

Alejandro Bejarano

13'

Hugo Dorrego

20'

Rodrigo GómezPenalty confirmed

21'

Cristhian Árabe

22'

Thomaz SantosPenalty

46'

M. De Lima← M. Arroyo

46'

51'

68'

69'

69'

70'

70'

71'

J. Castillo← M. Riquelme

77'

Daniel Castellón

83'

H. Sánchez← J. Sánchez

89'

C. Mora← A. Bejarano

90+2'

R. Pedriel← J. Godoy

90+5'

Edenilson↳ Thomaz Santos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteOriente

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots11

3Corners1

17Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots11

5On Target3

4Off Target7

1Blocked1

3Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

349Total Passes258

267Accurate Passes174

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Independiente Petrolero vs Oriente Petrolero

Independiente Petrolero beat Oriente Petrolero 2-0 in Primera División on July 25, 2023.

Goals: Thomaz Santos (22' pen), Edenilson (90+5').

Independiente Petrolero controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.

Independiente Petrolero vs Oriente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente Petrolero vs Oriente Petrolero