Independiente Petrolero 1–2 Deportivo Tachira FC

Independiente Petrolero

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Tachira FC

J. Campos 45'

R. Simisterra 65'

A. Uribe 44'

4/26/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente Petrolero38%

×Draw23%

Deportivo Tachira FC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Tachira FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.66

Independiente Petrolero

1.62

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

0.67

creates per match

0.64

2.67

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero

0.67

Deportivo Tachira FC

0.64

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero

2.67

Deportivo Tachira FC

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw

61%

Independiente Petrolero or Deportivo Tachira FC

77%

Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC

62%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

80%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

48%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

22%

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

81%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

49%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

49%

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 0.67 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 0.64 + Independiente Petrolero defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more

38%

level

23%

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

39%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Campos

Independiente Petrolero · F

8.2

Match Events

3'

3'

17'

32'

33'

36'

44'

45'

46'

51'

J. Bejarano← A. Bejarano

59'

A. Medina← L. Alí

59'

E. Restrepo← G. Benítez

60'

Alejandro Medina

60'

R. Simisterra← A. Uribe

65'

R. Simisterra↳ M. Cova

70'

L. Acuña← J. Campos

70'

L. Buter← J. Cristaldo

71'

J. Colina← R. Garcés

83'

N. Hernández← E. Farías

83'

M. Fernández← R. Figueroa

84'

Mijail Avilés

84'

Mijail Avilés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteDeportivo

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots11

3Corners5

15Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots11

5On Target4

4Off Target4

2Blocked3

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

332Total Passes268

237Accurate Passes174

71%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls14

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2