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Independiente Petrolero vs Bolívar — Primera División 2026

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bolívar
Bolívar
12/7/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Independiente Petrolero37%
×Draw24%
Bolívar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.54
Bolívar
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 135 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
Bolívar
2.01

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
Bolívar
1.33

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
60%
Independiente Petrolero or Bolívar
76%
Draw or Bolívar
63%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
18%
Bolívar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
79%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
45%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
20%
Bolívar 1+ goals
80%
Bolívar 2+ goals
48%
Bolívar 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
48%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Bolívar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bolívar attack 2.01 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
37%
level
24%
Bolívar scores more
40%

Bolívar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Independiente Petrolero 1–2 Bolívar

Bolívar beat Independiente Petrolero 2-1 in Primera División on December 7, 2025.