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Independiente Petrolero vs Always Ready — Primera División 2026

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Always Ready
Always Ready
5/10/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Independiente Petrolero44%
×Draw24%
Always Ready32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
1.63
Always Ready
1.35

Independiente Petrolero creates 21% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 129 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
Always Ready
1.50

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
Always Ready
1.51

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Always Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
68%
Independiente Petrolero or Always Ready
76%
Draw or Always Ready
56%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
23%
Always Ready wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
80%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
48%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
22%
Always Ready 1+ goals
74%
Always Ready 2+ goals
39%
Always Ready 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
58%
Always Ready (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.51 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Always Ready defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

Always Ready attack 1.50 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
44%
level
24%
Always Ready scores more
32%

Independiente Petrolero at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Independiente Petrolero 0–0 Always Ready

Independiente Petrolero and Always Ready drew 0-0 in Primera División on May 10, 2026.