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Independiente Neuquén vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Copa Argentina 2018

Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1/20/2018Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · Group A - 1st Round QualifyingEstadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente Neuquén37%
×Draw26%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Neuquén
1.33
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Independiente Neuquén
0.33
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.00

allows per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.67
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
2.33

finishing

Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Neuquén ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Independiente Neuquén or draw
63%
Independiente Neuquén or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
74%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
63%

Winning margin

Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
17%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
74%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
38%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
15%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
74%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
38%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
50%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Neuquén at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Neuquén attack 0.33 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.00 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Independiente Neuquén scores more
37%
level
26%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
37%

Independiente Neuquén at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Independiente Neuquén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Neuquén vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP

Independiente Neuquén beat Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1-0 in Copa Argentina on January 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez (Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires).