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Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Independiente Neuquén — Torneo Federal A 2018

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
3/16/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 8Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres (General Pico, Provincia La Pampa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP57%
×Draw26%
Independiente Neuquén17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.50
Independiente Neuquén
0.69

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 117% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.16
Independiente Neuquén
0.50

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.88
Independiente Neuquén
1.83

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par
Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Independiente Neuquén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw
83%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Independiente Neuquén
74%
Draw or Independiente Neuquén
43%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
30%
Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
78%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
44%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
19%
Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
50%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
15%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
77%
Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

Independiente Neuquén away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.16 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Independiente Neuquén attack 0.50 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
57%
level
26%
Independiente Neuquén scores more
17%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Independiente Neuquén

Ferro Carril Oeste LP beat Independiente Neuquén 3-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres (General Pico, Provincia La Pampa).