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Independiente Neuquén vs Deportivo Madryn — Torneo Federal A 2018

Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
3/11/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 7Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno (Neuquén, Provincia de Neuquén)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Independiente Neuquén36%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Madryn35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Neuquén
1.11
Deportivo Madryn
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 49 away

creates per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.00
Deportivo Madryn
0.96

allows per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.25
Deportivo Madryn
1.22

finishing

Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par
Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Neuquén ↓

Deportivo Madryn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Independiente Neuquén or draw
65%
Independiente Neuquén or Deportivo Madryn
71%
Draw or Deportivo Madryn
64%

Winning margin

Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
67%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
30%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
50%
Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Neuquén at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Deportivo Madryn away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Neuquén attack 1.00 + Deportivo Madryn defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Deportivo Madryn attack 0.96 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Independiente Neuquén scores more
36%
level
29%
Deportivo Madryn scores more
35%

Independiente Neuquén at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Independiente Neuquén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente Neuquén 0 – 1 Deportivo Madryn

Deportivo Madryn beat Independiente Neuquén 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno (Neuquén, Provincia de Neuquén).