Independiente Medellín W 1–2 Santa Fe W

Independiente Medellín W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Santa Fe W

6/22/2024

Liga Femenina · Quadrangular Semi-finals - 3Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Independiente Medellín W35%

×Draw26%

Santa Fe W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente Medellín WExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.40

Independiente Medellín W

1.31

Santa Fe W

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 64 away

1.84

creates per match

1.78

1.02

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Independiente Medellín W

1.84

Santa Fe W

1.78

allows per match

Independiente Medellín W

1.02

Santa Fe W

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Santa Fe W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellín W ↓

Santa Fe W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Independiente Medellín W or draw

61%

Independiente Medellín W or Santa Fe W

74%

Draw or Santa Fe W

65%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+

15%

Santa Fe W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals

73%

Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals

38%

Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals

14%

Santa Fe W 1+ goals

75%

Santa Fe W 2+ goals

41%

Santa Fe W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)

47%

Santa Fe W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellín W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Santa Fe W away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.84 + Santa Fe W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.31

Santa Fe W attack 1.78 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Independiente Medellín W scores more

35%

level

26%

Santa Fe W scores more

39%

Santa Fe W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Fe W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff