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Independiente Medellín W vs Internacional Palmira W — Liga Femenina 2020

Independiente Medellín W
Independiente Medellín W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Internacional Palmira W
Internacional Palmira W
5/5/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 10Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Independiente Medellín W55%
×Draw25%
Internacional Palmira W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellín W
1.62
Internacional Palmira W
0.89

Independiente Medellín W creates 82% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 25 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellín W
1.84
Internacional Palmira W
0.76

allows per match

Independiente Medellín W
1.02
Internacional Palmira W
1.40

finishing

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par
Internacional Palmira W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellín W ↓

Internacional Palmira W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Independiente Medellín W or draw
79%
Independiente Medellín W or Internacional Palmira W
75%
Draw or Internacional Palmira W
45%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+
29%
Internacional Palmira W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals
80%
Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals
48%
Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals
22%
Internacional Palmira W 1+ goals
59%
Internacional Palmira W 2+ goals
22%
Internacional Palmira W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)
73%
Internacional Palmira W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellín W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Internacional Palmira W away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.84 + Internacional Palmira W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.62

Internacional Palmira W attack 0.76 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independiente Medellín W scores more
55%
level
25%
Internacional Palmira W scores more
21%

Independiente Medellín W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente Medellín W 2 – 1 Internacional Palmira W

Independiente Medellín W beat Internacional Palmira W 2-1 in Liga Femenina on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí in Itagüí.