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Independiente Medellín W vs Deportes Tolima W — Liga Femenina 2020

Independiente Medellín W
Independiente Medellín W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Deportes Tolima W
Deportes Tolima W
4/20/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 11Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Independiente Medellín W64%
×Draw20%
Deportes Tolima W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellín W
2.17
Deportes Tolima W
1.01

Independiente Medellín W creates 115% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 16 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellín W
1.84
Deportes Tolima W
1.00

allows per match

Independiente Medellín W
1.02
Deportes Tolima W
2.50

finishing

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellín W ↓

Deportes Tolima W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Independiente Medellín W or draw
83%
Independiente Medellín W or Deportes Tolima W
80%
Draw or Deportes Tolima W
36%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+
40%
Deportes Tolima W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals
89%
Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals
64%
Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals
36%
Deportes Tolima W 1+ goals
64%
Deportes Tolima W 2+ goals
27%
Deportes Tolima W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)
79%
Deportes Tolima W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellín W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Deportes Tolima W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.84 + Deportes Tolima W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Deportes Tolima W attack 1.00 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Independiente Medellín W scores more
64%
level
20%
Deportes Tolima W scores more
17%

Independiente Medellín W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Medellín W vs Deportes Tolima W

Independiente Medellín W beat Deportes Tolima W 6-1 in Liga Femenina on April 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí in Itagüí.