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Independiente Medellín W vs Atlético Huila W — Liga Femenina 2020

Independiente Medellín W
Independiente Medellín W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Huila W
Atlético Huila W
3/28/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 8Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Independiente Medellín W51%
×Draw25%
Atlético Huila W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellín W
1.61
Atlético Huila W
1.01

Independiente Medellín W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 16 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellín W
1.84
Atlético Huila W
1.00

allows per match

Independiente Medellín W
1.02
Atlético Huila W
1.38

finishing

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par
Atlético Huila W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellín W ↓

Atlético Huila W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Independiente Medellín W or draw
76%
Independiente Medellín W or Atlético Huila W
75%
Draw or Atlético Huila W
49%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Huila W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals
80%
Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals
48%
Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Huila W 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Huila W 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Huila W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)
68%
Atlético Huila W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellín W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Atlético Huila W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.84 + Atlético Huila W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Atlético Huila W attack 1.00 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Independiente Medellín W scores more
51%
level
25%
Atlético Huila W scores more
24%

Independiente Medellín W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Independiente Medellín W 1–0 Atlético Huila W

Independiente Medellín W beat Atlético Huila W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on March 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí in Itagüí.