Independiente Medellín W 2–1 Atlético Bucaramanga W

Independiente Medellín W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Atlético Bucaramanga W

3/22/2025

Liga Femenina · Group Stage - 5Estadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Independiente Medellín W69%

×Draw19%

Atlético Bucaramanga W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente Medellín WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Bucaramanga W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.76

Independiente Medellín W

2.14

Atlético Bucaramanga W

0.76

Independiente Medellín W creates 182% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 39 away

1.84

creates per match

0.49

1.02

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Independiente Medellín W

1.84

Atlético Bucaramanga W

0.49

allows per match

Independiente Medellín W

1.02

Atlético Bucaramanga W

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellín W ↓

Atlético Bucaramanga W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Independiente Medellín W or draw

88%

Independiente Medellín W or Atlético Bucaramanga W

81%

Draw or Atlético Bucaramanga W

31%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+

44%

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals

88%

Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals

63%

Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals

36%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals

53%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals

18%

Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)

85%

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellín W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W away — creates 0.49, concedes 2.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.84 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.14

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.49 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Independiente Medellín W scores more

69%

level

19%

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more

12%

Independiente Medellín W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff