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Independiente Medellín W vs América de Cali W — Liga Femenina 2020

Independiente Medellín W
Independiente Medellín W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
América de Cali W
América de Cali W
4/6/2024Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 6Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Independiente Medellín W35%
×Draw25%
América de Cali W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellín W
1.35
América de Cali W
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellín W
1.84
América de Cali W
1.85

allows per match

Independiente Medellín W
1.02
América de Cali W
0.87

finishing

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par
América de Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellín W ↓

América de Cali W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Independiente Medellín W or draw
61%
Independiente Medellín W or América de Cali W
75%
Draw or América de Cali W
65%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+
16%
América de Cali W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals
74%
Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals
39%
Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals
15%
América de Cali W 1+ goals
76%
América de Cali W 2+ goals
42%
América de Cali W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)
47%
América de Cali W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellín W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

América de Cali W away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.84 + América de Cali W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.35

América de Cali W attack 1.85 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Independiente Medellín W scores more
35%
level
25%
América de Cali W scores more
39%

América de Cali W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "América de Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Medellín W vs América de Cali W

América de Cali W beat Independiente Medellín W 3-2 in Liga Femenina on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí in Itagüí.