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Independiente Medellin vs Patriotas — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
J. Cuesta 54'
M. Cortés 20'
G. Cano 11'
7/15/2019Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Independiente Medellin58%
×Draw25%
Patriotas17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.60
Patriotas
0.75

Independiente Medellin creates 113% more chances

Season form · 182 home / 105 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.57
Patriotas
0.69

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.81
Patriotas
1.64

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
83%
Independiente Medellin or Patriotas
75%
Draw or Patriotas
42%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
31%
Patriotas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
80%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
47%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
22%
Patriotas 1+ goals
53%
Patriotas 2+ goals
17%
Patriotas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
77%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.81 · 182 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.64 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Patriotas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Patriotas attack 0.69 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
58%
level
25%
Patriotas scores more
17%

Independiente Medellin at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. CortésIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · M
8.3

Match Events

11'
G. Cano↳ Y. Díaz
20'
M. Cortés
35'
F. Carabalí← F. Ávila
43'
M. Medina← E. Benavídez
54'
J. Cuesta↳ M. Cortés
62'
J. Marimón← C. Hinestroza
63'
Jesús Marimón
68'
E. Mosquera← J. Cuesta
73'
J. Díaz← Y. Díaz
80'
D. Arias← A. Arregui

Possession

56%Independiente

Shots

10Independiente

Pass accuracy

51%Independiente

Statistics

IndependientePatriotas
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots9
4Corners3
12Fouls17
Shots
10Total Shots9
6On Target0
3Off Target5
1Blocked4
7Inside Box3
3Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
539Total Passes419
481Accurate Passes355
89%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls17
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Patriotas

Independiente Medellin beat Patriotas 3-0 in Primera A on July 15, 2019.

Goals: G. Cano (11'), M. Cortés (20'), J. Cuesta (54').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.