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Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
Preview
01:15
Once Caldas
Once Caldas
10/18/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Big match
48%
Independiente Medellin
model favours
48%29%23%

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Independiente Medellin48%
×Draw29%
Once Caldas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.29
Once Caldas
0.81

Independiente Medellin creates 59% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.45
Once Caldas
0.88

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.75
Once Caldas
1.14

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.03on par
Once Caldas+0.20scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Once Caldas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
77%
Independiente Medellin or Once Caldas
71%
Draw or Once Caldas
52%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
22%
Once Caldas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
72%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
37%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
14%
Once Caldas 1+ goals
56%
Once Caldas 2+ goals
19%
Once Caldas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
67%
Once Caldas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.45 + Once Caldas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Once Caldas attack 0.88 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
48%
level
29%
Once Caldas scores more
23%

Independiente Medellin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Once Caldas score first in only 23% of matches
  • Once Caldas win just 17% of their away games
  • 67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Independiente Medellin sit 2, Once Caldas 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Independiente Medellin
Attack-heavy
Once Caldas
Balanced
53%Possession50%
80%Pass accuracy80%
13.9Shots12.7
1.29xGBiggest gap1.04
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Independiente Medellin
4
Draws
2
Once Caldas
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 80%
1–15–12–02–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Medellin
WDLWD
Caldas
DLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Independiente Medellin host Once Caldas

October 18, 2026: Independiente Medellin take on Once Caldas in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Independiente Medellin host Once Caldas at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.