Independiente Medellin 3–1 Once Caldas

Independiente Medellin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Once Caldas

V. Hernández 81'

D. Cambindo 63'

E. López 47'

F. Micolta 7'

9/18/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 10Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin49%

×Draw28%

Once Caldas23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.80

Independiente Medellin

1.33

Once Caldas

0.80

Independiente Medellin creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.53

creates per match

0.88

0.73

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.53

Once Caldas

0.88

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.73

Once Caldas

1.14

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.15scores less

Once Caldas+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

77%

Independiente Medellin or Once Caldas

72%

Draw or Once Caldas

51%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

23%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

74%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

38%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

15%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

55%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

19%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

69%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 13 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.53 + Once Caldas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Once Caldas attack 0.88 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

49%

level

28%

Once Caldas scores more

23%

Independiente Medellin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

V. Hernández

Independiente Medellin · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

18'

27'

36'

39'

47'

59'

61'

63'

D. Cambindo↳ A. Arregui

64'

D. Quiñonez← M. Pérez

64'

H. Otálvaro← E. Laszo

65'

J. Mosquera← D. Bueno

68'

M. García← F. Micolta

68'

N. Quiñones← M. Carreazo

71'

J. Palma← N. Palacios

80'

J. Pineda← J. Reina

80'

A. Vuletich← D. Cambindo

81'

V. Hernández

88'

Dannovi Quinonez

90+1'

Agustin Vuletich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteOnce

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots8

8Corners3

9Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots8

7On Target4

5Off Target4

4Blocked0

12Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

400Total Passes294

333Accurate Passes217

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls20

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0