Independiente Medellin 1–1 Once Caldas

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Once Caldas

J. Gallego 3'

H. Otálvaro 14'

7/29/2021

Copa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Independiente Medellin50%

×Draw27%

Once Caldas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.83

Independiente Medellin

1.40

Once Caldas

0.83

Independiente Medellin creates 69% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

1.39

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.39

Once Caldas

0.67

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

1.00

Once Caldas

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Once Caldas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

78%

Independiente Medellin or Once Caldas

73%

Draw or Once Caldas

50%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

25%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

75%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

41%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

17%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

56%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

20%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

69%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.39 + Once Caldas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Once Caldas attack 0.67 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

50%

level

27%

Once Caldas scores more

22%

Independiente Medellin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Gallego

14'

H. Otálvaro

37'

B. Angulo← H. Otálvaro

46'

A. Vuletich← L. Castro

61'

V. Hernández← J. Gallego

72'

A. Estacio← J. Pérez

72'

M. García← N. Messiniti

74'

S. Hernández← J. Reina

90+3'

D. Quiñonez← S. Roa

90+3'

J. Cuero← B. Angulo

Independiente

Once

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: H. Gómez

46'▲A. Vuletich←▼L. Castro

61'▲V. Hernández←▼J. Gallego

74'▲S. Hernández←▼J. Reina

Independiente Medellin substitutes

VuletichHernándezHernándezMosqueraLondoñoCamargoMoreno

Manager: E. Lara

37'▲B. Angulo←▼H. Otálvaro

72'▲A. Estacio←▼J. Pérez

72'▲M. García←▼N. Messiniti

90+3'▲D. Quiñonez←▼S. Roa

90+3'▲J. Cuero←▼B. Angulo

Once Caldas substitutes

AnguloEstacioGarcíaQuiñonezCueroEscobarPalma