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Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
Preview
21:10
Llaneros
Llaneros
8/30/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 8Estadio Atanasio Girardot
57%
Independiente Medellin
model favours
57%26%17%

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Independiente Medellin57%
×Draw26%
Llaneros17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.55
Llaneros
0.71

Independiente Medellin creates 118% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.45
Llaneros
0.67

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.75
Llaneros
1.66

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.03on par
Llaneros+0.11scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Llaneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
83%
Independiente Medellin or Llaneros
74%
Draw or Llaneros
43%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
31%
Llaneros wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
79%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
46%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
20%
Llaneros 1+ goals
51%
Llaneros 2+ goals
16%
Llaneros 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
77%
Llaneros (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.66 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.45 + Llaneros defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Llaneros attack 0.67 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
57%
level
26%
Llaneros scores more
17%

Independiente Medellin at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Independiente Medellin sit 2, Llaneros 19 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Independiente Medellin
Attack-heavy
Llaneros
Balanced
53%Possession47%
80%Pass accuracy78%
14.0Shots9.6
1.33xGBiggest gap0.87
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Independiente MedellinLlaneros

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

2
Independiente Medellin
1
Draws
0
Llaneros
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 33%
2–21–03–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Medellin
WDLWD
Llaneros
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Independiente Medellin host Llaneros

August 30, 2026: Independiente Medellin take on Llaneros in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Independiente Medellin host Llaneros at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.