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Independiente Medellin vs Libertad Asuncion — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
J. Murillo 59'
O. Cardozo 28'
D. Bocanegra 3'
3/4/2020CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin55%
×Draw26%
Libertad Asuncion19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.53
Libertad Asuncion
0.79

Independiente Medellin creates 94% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.62
Libertad Asuncion
0.81

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.77
Libertad Asuncion
1.44

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
81%
Independiente Medellin or Libertad Asuncion
74%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
45%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
29%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
78%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
45%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
20%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
55%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
19%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
74%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.81 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
55%
level
26%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
19%

Independiente Medellin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. RicaurteIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · M
8.0

Match Events

3'
D. Bocanegra↳ N. Milesi
28'
O. Cardozo
32'
Adrian Arregui
40'
Óscar Cardozo
41'
Didier Delgado
43'
Nicolás Milesi
46'
L. Castro← B. Garcés
46'
E. Mosquera← L. Angulo
55'
Daniel Bocanegra
59'
J. Murillo↳ A. Ricaurte
69'
Diego Viera
69'
L. Abecasis← D. Bocanegra
73'
P. Da Silva← O. Cardozo
75'
M. Balanta← D. Delgado
78'
A. Martínez← H. Villalba
90'
Leonardo Castro
90'
Sebastián Ferreira

Possession

65%Independiente

Shots

20Independiente

Pass accuracy

55%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteLibertad
Overview
65%Possession35%
20Total Shots4
11Corners0
14Fouls15
Shots
20Total Shots4
5On Target2
9Off Target1
6Blocked1
9Inside Box3
11Outside Box1
Passing
65%Possession35%
522Total Passes297
441Accurate Passes206
84%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls15
3Yellow Cards5

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Libertad Asuncion

Libertad Asuncion beat Independiente Medellin 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 4, 2020.

Goals: D. Bocanegra (3'), O. Cardozo (28'), J. Murillo (59').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (65%) and registered 20 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.