Independiente Medellin 0–0 Junior: Result & Stats

Independiente Medellin

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Junior

7/28/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin48%

×Draw27%

Junior25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.94

Independiente Medellin

1.42

Junior

0.94

Independiente Medellin creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

1.53

creates per match

1.16

0.73

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.53

Junior

1.16

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.73

Junior

1.30

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.15scores less

Junior+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

75%

Independiente Medellin or Junior

73%

Draw or Junior

52%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

24%

Junior wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

76%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

41%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

17%

Junior 1+ goals

61%

Junior 2+ goals

24%

Junior 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

66%

Junior (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 13 matches

Junior away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.53 + Junior defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Junior attack 1.16 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

48%

level

27%

Junior scores more

25%

Independiente Medellin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Martínez

Junior · G

7.7

Match Events

9'

B. Leon Muniz

18'

R. HinojosaGoal Disallowed - offside

25'

30'

31'

46'

46'

61'

Marcus Vinicius← H. Martínez

61'

L. Sandoval← J. González

62'

F. Chaverra← A. Alfonso

67'

A. Colorado← J. Enamorado

67'

Yairo Moreno← R. Hinojosa

71'

A. Colorado

79'

Jhon Vasquez

79'

B. Perlaza← J. Alvarado

80'

S. Rodríguez← C. Bacca

87'

B. Castrillón← Y. Chará

90+1'

L. Sandoval

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteJunior

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots6

5Corners3

17Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots6

6On Target1

4Off Target2

3Blocked3

5Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

363Total Passes367

290Accurate Passes290

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls11

5Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1