Independiente Medellin 1–0 Junior: Result & Stats

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Junior

L. Pons 65'

7/24/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin48%

×Draw27%

Junior25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.94

Independiente Medellin

1.42

Junior

0.94

Independiente Medellin creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

1.53

creates per match

1.16

0.73

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.53

Junior

1.16

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.73

Junior

1.30

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.15scores less

Junior+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

75%

Independiente Medellin or Junior

73%

Draw or Junior

52%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

24%

Junior wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

76%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

41%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

17%

Junior 1+ goals

61%

Junior 2+ goals

24%

Junior 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

66%

Junior (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 13 matches

Junior away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.53 + Junior defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Junior attack 1.16 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

48%

level

27%

Junior scores more

25%

Independiente Medellin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Mosquera

Independiente Medellin · G

7.5

Match Events

25'

Didier Moreno

27'

Miguel Monsalve

46'

G. Lencina← C. Bacca

52'

J. Alvarado← D. Loaiza

53'

Á. Plata← M. Monsalve

56'

Daniel Londoño

65'

L. Pons↳ D. Torres

70'

K. Padilla← P. Rojas

74'

D. Moreno← D. Quiñónes

77'

Anderson Plata

79'

C. Sierra← H. Martínez

85'

90+6'

90+6'

90+1'

90+1'

J. Palacios← D. Torres

90+2'

F. Hinestroza← O. Albornoz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteJunior

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots11

5Corners6

15Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots11

4On Target2

5Off Target5

1Blocked4

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

391Total Passes415

311Accurate Passes331

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Junior

Independiente Medellin beat Junior 1-0 in Primera A on July 24, 2023.

Goals: L. Pons (65').

Junior controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Independiente Medellin vs Junior — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Junior