Independiente Medellin 2–1 Junior: Result & Stats

Independiente Medellin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Junior

L. Castro 89'

A. Vuletich 52'

M. Borja 43'

1/14/2021

Copa Colombia · Quarter-finalsEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Independiente Medellin48%

×Draw25%

Junior27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.09

Independiente Medellin

1.56

Junior

1.09

Independiente Medellin creates 43% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 11 away

1.39

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.39

Junior

1.18

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

1.00

Junior

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Junior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

73%

Independiente Medellin or Junior

75%

Draw or Junior

52%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

25%

Junior wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

79%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

46%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

21%

Junior 1+ goals

66%

Junior 2+ goals

30%

Junior 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

64%

Junior (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Junior away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.39 + Junior defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Junior attack 1.18 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

48%

level

25%

Junior scores more

27%

Independiente Medellin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Piedrahita← F. Viáfara

43'

M. Borja

46'

J. Rodríguez← Didier Moreno

52'

A. Vuletich

61'

J. Cuesta← J. Pineda

73'

L. Castro← A. Vuletich

76'

C. Valencia← F. Hinestroza

76'

79'

81'

89'

Independiente

Junior

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Vuletich

Manager: H. Gómez

61'▲J. Cuesta←▼J. Pineda

73'▲L. Castro←▼A. Vuletich

79'▲Y. Díaz←▼R. Harrys

Independiente Medellin substitutes

CuestaCastroDíazMosqueraVásquezGómez

Manager: L. Perea

20'▲M. Piedrahita←▼F. Viáfara

46'▲J. Rodríguez←▼Didier Moreno

76'▲C. Valencia←▼F. Hinestroza

76'▲L. Vásquez←▼F. Ángel

81'▲W. Ditta←▼J. Pajoy

Junior substitutes

PiedrahitaRodríguezValenciaVásquezDittaMorenoChaux