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Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
Preview
01:10
Jaguares
Jaguares
9/19/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Big match
53%
Independiente Medellin
model favours
53%27%19%

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Independiente Medellin53%
×Draw27%
Jaguares19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.41
Jaguares
0.72

Independiente Medellin creates 96% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.45
Jaguares
0.68

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.75
Jaguares
1.36

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.03on par
Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
81%
Independiente Medellin or Jaguares
73%
Draw or Jaguares
47%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
27%
Jaguares wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
76%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
41%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
17%
Jaguares 1+ goals
51%
Jaguares 2+ goals
16%
Jaguares 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
74%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.45 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
53%
level
27%
Jaguares scores more
19%

Independiente Medellin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Independiente Medellin sit 2, Jaguares 20 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Independiente Medellin
Attack-heavy
Jaguares
Balanced
53%Possession46%
80%Pass accuracy78%
13.8Shots12.0
1.33xGBiggest gap0.95
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Independiente MedellinJaguares

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Independiente Medellin
4
Draws
1
Jaguares
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 50%
2–11–01–14–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Medellin
WDLWD
Jaguares
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente Medellin face Jaguares (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Independiente Medellin hosting Jaguares. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Independiente Medellin host Jaguares at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.