Independiente Medellin 3–0 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Independiente Medellin

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jaguares

G. Cano 90' (pen), 38'

S. Macías 58'

4/20/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 17Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Independiente Medellin53%

×Draw27%

Jaguares19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.72

Independiente Medellin

1.41

Jaguares

0.72

Independiente Medellin creates 96% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.45

creates per match

0.68

0.75

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.45

Jaguares

0.68

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.75

Jaguares

1.36

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.03on par

Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

81%

Independiente Medellin or Jaguares

73%

Draw or Jaguares

47%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

27%

Jaguares wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

76%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

41%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

17%

Jaguares 1+ goals

51%

Jaguares 2+ goals

16%

Jaguares 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

74%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.45 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

53%

level

27%

Jaguares scores more

19%

Independiente Medellin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

G. Cano

Independiente Medellin · F

8.8

Match Events

38'

G. Cano↳ N. Palacios

44'

J. Silgado← J. Zuluaga

45'

Leonardo Castro

58'

S. Macías↳ A. Ricaurte

65'

J. Obregón← E. Ibargüen

70'

C. Echavarría← D. Herazo

74'

76'

78'

82'

82'

87'

B. Castrillón← L. Castro

90'

G. CanoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteJaguares

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots13

5Corners6

19Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots13

7On Target3

3Off Target8

7Blocked2

7Inside Box9

10Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

496Total Passes344

421Accurate Passes269

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5