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Independiente Medellin vs Estudiantes L.P. — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
F. Chaverra 63'
T. Palacios 4'
4/9/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin47%
×Draw29%
Estudiantes L.P.24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.28
Estudiantes L.P.
0.83

Independiente Medellin creates 54% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.62
Estudiantes L.P.
0.89

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.77
Estudiantes L.P.
0.94

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Estudiantes L.P.+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
76%
Independiente Medellin or Estudiantes L.P.
71%
Draw or Estudiantes L.P.
53%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
22%
Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
72%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
37%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
14%
Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals
56%
Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals
20%
Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
66%
Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.28

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.89 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
47%
level
29%
Estudiantes L.P. scores more
24%

Independiente Medellin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
F. ChaverraIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · F
8.2

Match Events

4'
T. Palacios↳ M. Amondarain
24'
J. Montano
24'
L. Piovi
36'
T. Palacios
37'
D. Londono
46'
D. Catano← E. Mena Perea
48'
T. Palacios
62'
A. Gaich← G. Carrillo
62'
A. Castro← F. Farias
62'
J. Burgos← E. Cetre
63'
F. Chaverra↳ D. Catano
68'
Yony Gonzalez← J. Montano
82'
G. Benedetti
87'
E. Larrosa← F. Fydriszewski
90'
F. Muslera
90'
B. Aguirre← T. Palacios
90'
Gabriel Neves← M. Amondarain

Possession

64%Independiente

Shots

12Independiente

Pass accuracy

54%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteEstudiantes
Overview
64%Possession36%
12Total Shots10
0.59Expected Goals (xG)0.37
7Corners1
13Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots10
5On Target4
6Off Target4
1Blocked2
6Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
64%Possession36%
398Total Passes231
326Accurate Passes159
82%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.12Goals Prevented0.12
Discipline
13Fouls16
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Estudiantes L.P.

Independiente Medellin and Estudiantes L.P. drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 9, 2026.

Goals: T. Palacios (4'), F. Chaverra (63').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.