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Independiente Medellin vs El Nacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
El Nacional
El Nacional
D. Cambindo 73'
J. Monroy 67'
J. Parrales 90+2'
3/2/2023CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independiente Medellin41%
×Draw24%
El Nacional35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.61
El Nacional
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.62
El Nacional
2.20

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.77
El Nacional
1.60

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
65%
Independiente Medellin or El Nacional
76%
Draw or El Nacional
59%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
20%
El Nacional wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
80%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
48%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
22%
El Nacional 1+ goals
77%
El Nacional 2+ goals
44%
El Nacional 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
53%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

El Nacional away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + El Nacional defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

El Nacional attack 2.20 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
41%
level
24%
El Nacional scores more
35%

Independiente Medellin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. MosqueraIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · G
8.2

Match Events

11'
B. Nazareno
20'
D. Torres
46'
Y. Gómez← D. Londoño
48'
R. Carrillo
61'
S. Gómez← B. Palacios
67'
J. Monroy↳ L. Pons
68'
D. Cambindo← L. Pons
71'
G. Asprilla← J. Ordoñez
71'
B. Oña← M. Solís
73'
D. Cambindo↳ A. Ricaurte
76'
A. Micolta
80'
E. Batalla← F. Pardo
80'
J. Alvarado← A. Ricaurte
85'
E. Cetré← J. Monroy
90+2'
J. Parrales↳ J. Chalá

Possession

53%Independiente

Shots

12Independiente

Pass accuracy

52%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteEl
Overview
53%Possession47%
12Total Shots20
1Corners12
8Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots20
4On Target8
6Off Target8
2Blocked4
9Inside Box11
3Outside Box9
Passing
53%Possession47%
343Total Passes283
242Accurate Passes188
71%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
7Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente Medellin 2–1 El Nacional

Independiente Medellin beat El Nacional 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 2, 2023.

Goals: J. Monroy (67'), D. Cambindo (73'), J. Parrales (90+2').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.