Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
Preview
23:10
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
8/1/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Big match
49%
Independiente Medellin
model favours
49%27%24%

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Independiente Medellin49%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Cali24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.43
Deportivo Cali
0.90

Independiente Medellin creates 59% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 42 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.54
Deportivo Cali
0.90

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.90
Deportivo Cali
1.31

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
76%
Independiente Medellin or Deportivo Cali
73%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
51%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
76%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
42%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
68%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.54 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Deportivo Cali attack 0.90 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
49%
level
27%
Deportivo Cali scores more
24%

Independiente Medellin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row
  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — Independiente Medellin play Possession-dominant, Deportivo Cali Defensively solid
  • Independiente Medellin outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.0 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Independiente Medellin
Possession-dominant
Deportivo Cali
Defensively solid
58%Possession52%
82%Pass accuracy79%
14.1ShotsBiggest gap12.5
0.96xG1.03
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Independiente MedellinDeportivo Cali

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Independiente Medellin
1
Draws
2
Deportivo Cali
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
1–33–10–00–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Medellin
WDLWD
Cali
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Independiente Medellin host Deportivo Cali

August 1, 2026: Independiente Medellin take on Deportivo Cali in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Independiente Medellin host Deportivo Cali at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.