Independiente Medellin 1–0 Deportivo Cali

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Cali

B. León 14'

2/6/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 4Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Independiente Medellin50%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cali24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.92

Independiente Medellin

1.46

Deportivo Cali

0.92

Independiente Medellin creates 59% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 47 away

1.55

creates per match

0.96

0.88

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.55

Deportivo Cali

0.96

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.88

Deportivo Cali

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

76%

Independiente Medellin or Deportivo Cali

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

50%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

77%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

43%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

18%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

68%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.55 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Cali attack 0.96 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

50%

level

27%

Deportivo Cali scores more

24%

Independiente Medellin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

E. Chaux

Independiente Medellin · G

8.3

Match Events

11'

11'

14'

17'

26'

36'

41'

41'

46'

46'

J. Barrera← K. Osorio

56'

Á. Plata← J. Vásquez

56'

D. Moreno← B. Perlaza

64'

J. Palacios

66'

L. Villegas← F. Ángel

82'

J. Moreno← J. Marulanda

83'

88'

89'

89'

90+3'

M. Palacios← L. Orejuela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteDeportivo

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots15

3Corners6

15Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots15

2On Target7

8Off Target6

3Blocked2

5Inside Box6

8Outside Box9

Passing

41%Possession59%

296Total Passes419

218Accurate Passes345

74%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls8

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Primera A: Independiente Medellin 1–0 Deportivo Cali

Independiente Medellin beat Deportivo Cali 1-0 in Primera A on February 6, 2024.

Goals: B. León (14').

Deportivo Cali controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Independiente Medellin 1–0 Deportivo Cali