Independiente Medellin 2–1 Deportivo Cali

Independiente Medellin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo Cali

G. Cano 35'

A. Arregui 20'

D. Rosero 90+3'

11/7/2019

Copa Colombia · FinalsEstadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Independiente Medellin42%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cali30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.09

Independiente Medellin

1.34

Deportivo Cali

1.09

Independiente Medellin creates 23% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.39

Deportivo Cali

1.18

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

1.00

Deportivo Cali

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

70%

Independiente Medellin or Deportivo Cali

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

58%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

74%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

39%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.39 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Deportivo Cali attack 1.18 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

42%

level

27%

Deportivo Cali scores more

30%

Independiente Medellin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

20'

35'

56'

61'

A. Palavecino← A. Arroyo

70'

K. Velasco← D. Andrade

73'

C. Rodríguez← D. Caicedo

76'

J. Dinenno

76'

A. Cadavid

77'

B. Castrillón← E. Perlaza

84'

D. Moreno

84'

D. Arias← A. Arregui

86'

G. Cano

88'

H. Urrego← D. Quiñónes

90+3'

D. Rosero

Independiente

Deportivo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Bobadilla

77'▲B. Castrillón←▼E. Perlaza

84'▲D. Arias←▼A. Arregui

88'▲H. Urrego←▼D. Quiñónes

Independiente Medellin substitutes

CastrillónAriasUrregoMosqueraRodríguezEchavarríaCuesta

Manager: L. Pusineri

61'▲A. Palavecino←▼A. Arroyo

70'▲K. Velasco←▼D. Andrade

73'▲C. Rodríguez←▼D. Caicedo

Deportivo Cali substitutes

PalavecinoVelascoRodríguezColoradoMorenoCabreraMina

Copa Colombia: Independiente Medellin 2–1 Deportivo Cali

Independiente Medellin beat Deportivo Cali 2-1 in Copa Colombia on November 7, 2019.

Goals: A. Arregui (20'), G. Cano (35'), D. Rosero (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín).

Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Independiente Medellin 2–1 Deportivo Cali