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Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
5/16/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 183+ matches

Independiente Medellin43%
×Draw28%
Deportes Tolima29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.29
Deportes Tolima
1.02

Independiente Medellin creates 26% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 196 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.57
Deportes Tolima
1.22

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.82
Deportes Tolima
1.01

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
71%
Independiente Medellin or Deportes Tolima
72%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
57%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
19%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
72%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
37%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
14%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
64%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
27%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
59%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.29

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
43%
level
28%
Deportes Tolima scores more
29%

Independiente Medellin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Independiente Medellin 0–1 Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Independiente Medellin 1-0 in Primera A on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.