Independiente Medellin 1–0 Deportes Tolima

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Tolima

F. Pardo 85'

1/23/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin45%

×Draw29%

Deportes Tolima26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.89

Independiente Medellin

1.25

Deportes Tolima

0.89

Independiente Medellin creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.53

creates per match

1.05

0.73

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.53

Deportes Tolima

1.05

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.73

Deportes Tolima

0.98

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.15scores less

Deportes Tolima-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

74%

Independiente Medellin or Deportes Tolima

71%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

55%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

20%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

71%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

36%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

13%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

59%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

22%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

63%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 13 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.98 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.53 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportes Tolima attack 1.05 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

45%

level

29%

Deportes Tolima scores more

26%

Independiente Medellin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

F. Pardo

Independiente Medellin · M

7.9

Match Events

35'

Andrés Cadavid

36'

Eduar Caicedo

42'

B. Castrillón← A. Ricaurte

46'

A. Arregui← J. Hernández

61'

Á. Meléndez← L. Miranda

69'

F. Pardo← V. Hernández

70'

Junior Hernández

71'

Jose Moya

72'

G. Ramírez← A. Ibargüen

77'

L. Pons← D. Cambindo

77'

Y. Orozco← R. García

85'

F. Pardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteDeportes

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots7

3Corners7

10Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots7

3On Target1

9Off Target5

3Blocked1

6Inside Box2

9Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

432Total Passes521

350Accurate Passes437

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0