Independiente Medellin 2–1 Club Nacional

Independiente Medellin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Club Nacional

D. Quiñónes 68'

A. Ibargüen 25'

D. Rodríguez 12'

5/24/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin53%

×Draw26%

Club Nacional21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchClub Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.85

Independiente Medellin

1.51

Club Nacional

0.85

Independiente Medellin creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

1.62

creates per match

0.93

0.77

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.62

Club Nacional

0.93

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.77

Club Nacional

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Club Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

79%

Independiente Medellin or Club Nacional

74%

Draw or Club Nacional

47%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

27%

Club Nacional wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

78%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

44%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

19%

Club Nacional 1+ goals

57%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

21%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

71%

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Club Nacional away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + Club Nacional defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

Club Nacional attack 0.93 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

53%

level

26%

Club Nacional scores more

21%

Independiente Medellin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Quiñónes

Independiente Medellin · F

7.7

Match Events

6'

J. Marulanda

12'

D. Rodríguez↳ F. Fagúndez

24'

C. Candido

25'

A. Ibargüen↳ E. Cetré

38'

D. Torres

65'

D. Quiñónes← E. Cetré

66'

G. Pereiro← F. Fagúndez

68'

D. Quiñónes↳ J. Alvarado

74'

D. Loaiza← L. Pons

74'

C. Almeida← C. Cándido

74'

E. Gigliotti← I. Ramírez

74'

F. Martínez← A. Trezza

80'

D. Zabala

86'

M. Montiel← D. Rodríguez

87'

J. Monroy← J. Marulanda

88'

J. Palacios← A. Ibargüen

90'

G. Pereiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteClub

Overview

72%Possession28%

17Total Shots11

3Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots11

4On Target6

8Off Target2

5Blocked3

10Inside Box8

7Outside Box3

Passing

72%Possession28%

571Total Passes213

508Accurate Passes146

89%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Club Nacional

Independiente Medellin beat Club Nacional 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 24, 2023.

Goals: D. Rodríguez (12'), A. Ibargüen (25'), D. Quiñónes (68').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (72%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Independiente Medellin vs Club Nacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Club Nacional