Independiente Medellin 0–0 Chico: Result & Stats

Independiente Medellin

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chico

6/4/2023

Primera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin60%

×Draw24%

Chico16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.74

Independiente Medellin

1.70

Chico

0.74

Independiente Medellin creates 130% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.53

creates per match

0.76

0.73

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.53

Chico

0.76

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.73

Chico

1.87

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.15scores less

Chico-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

84%

Independiente Medellin or Chico

76%

Draw or Chico

40%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

34%

Chico wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

82%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

51%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

24%

Chico 1+ goals

52%

Chico 2+ goals

17%

Chico 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

79%

Chico (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 13 matches

Chico away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.87 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.53 + Chico defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.70

Chico attack 0.76 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

60%

level

24%

Chico scores more

16%

Independiente Medellin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Caicedo

Chico · G

7.6

Match Events

20'

D. Alfonzo

41'

D. A. Loaiza Gutierrez

46'

J. Alvarado← D. Loaiza

46'

A. Ricaurte← D. Quiñónes

54'

A. Ibargüen← E. Batalla

58'

E. Cetré← J. Arizala

59'

S. Colón← Á. Peña

90+4'

G. Del Castillo← D. Alfonzo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteChico

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots11

9Corners5

8Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots11

5On Target2

6Off Target4

4Blocked5

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

463Total Passes297

369Accurate Passes198

80%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

7Offsides1