Chico 2–0 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Chico

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

7/20/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 2Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Chico41%

×Draw28%

Independiente Medellin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChicoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.06

Chico

1.25

Independiente Medellin

1.06

Chico creates 18% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 185 away

1.14

creates per match

1.16

0.97

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Chico

1.14

Independiente Medellin

1.16

allows per match

Chico

0.97

Independiente Medellin

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chico+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chico or draw

69%

Chico or Independiente Medellin

72%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

59%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+

18%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals

71%

Chico 2+ goals

36%

Chico 3+ goals

13%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

65%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

29%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)

56%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 110 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.14 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Chico defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chico scores more

41%

level

28%

Independiente Medellin scores more

31%

Chico at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff