Independiente Medellin 1–2 Bucaramanga

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bucaramanga

F. Chaverra 50' (pen)

E. Batalla 37', 34'

3/1/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 9Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Independiente Medellin48%

×Draw28%

Bucaramanga23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.82

Independiente Medellin

1.32

Bucaramanga

0.82

Independiente Medellin creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

0.89

0.75

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.45

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.75

Bucaramanga

1.19

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.03on par

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

77%

Independiente Medellin or Bucaramanga

72%

Draw or Bucaramanga

52%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

23%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

73%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

38%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

15%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

56%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

20%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

68%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.45 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

48%

level

28%

Bucaramanga scores more

23%

Independiente Medellin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Quintana

Bucaramanga · G

8.9

Match Events

26'

M. Balanta

32'

E. Larrosa

34'

E. Batalla↳ K. Londono

37'

E. Batalla↳ A. Gutierrez

38'

F. Fydriszewski

45+1'

K. Londono

46'

J. Ortiz← K. Mantilla

50'

F. ChaverraPenalty

61'

J. Salazar← J. Mosquera

63'

D. Moreno← H. Loboa

63'

H. Palacios← M. Balanta

70'

L. Flores← K. Londono

72'

F. Fabra← F. Chaverra

72'

G. Mancilla← D. Moreno

80'

A. Zarate← G. Charrupi

80'

C. Romana← E. Batalla

89'

D. Moreno

90+4'

C. Romana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteBucaramanga

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots6

2.44Expected Goals (xG)0.58

12Corners2

10Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots6

10On Target3

4Off Target2

5Blocked1

17Inside Box3

2Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

390Total Passes283

317Accurate Passes215

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves12

2.42Goals Prevented2.42

Discipline

10Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3