Independiente Medellin 2–0 Bucaramanga

Independiente Medellin

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bucaramanga

A. Ricaurte 77'

J. Murillo 34'

10/29/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 17Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Independiente Medellin50%

×Draw28%

Bucaramanga22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchBucaramanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.81

Independiente Medellin

1.36

Bucaramanga

0.81

Independiente Medellin creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.53

creates per match

0.89

0.73

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.53

Bucaramanga

0.89

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.73

Bucaramanga

1.19

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.15scores less

Bucaramanga-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Bucaramanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

78%

Independiente Medellin or Bucaramanga

72%

Draw or Bucaramanga

50%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

24%

Bucaramanga wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

74%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

39%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

16%

Bucaramanga 1+ goals

56%

Bucaramanga 2+ goals

19%

Bucaramanga 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

69%

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 13 matches

Bucaramanga away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.53 + Bucaramanga defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bucaramanga attack 0.89 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

50%

level

28%

Bucaramanga scores more

22%

Independiente Medellin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Ricaurte

Independiente Medellin · M

9.2

Match Events

24'

William Parra

34'

J. Murillo↳ A. Ricaurte

36'

Larry Angulo

46'

K. Salazar← D. Jiménez

53'

Gabriel Gómez

66'

E. Valencia← J. Caicedo

71'

J. Blanco← B. Castrillón

76'

Fabio Rodriguez

77'

A. Ricaurte↳ W. Parra

79'

Y. Asprilla← G. Gómez

80'

Andres Ricaurte

83'

Brayan Rovira

87'

J. Segura← H. Pertúz

88'

Y. Filigrana← K. Salazar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteBucaramanga

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots11

4Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots11

6On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked4

7Inside Box4

7Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

430Total Passes482

358Accurate Passes413

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2