Independiente Medellin 1–4 Atletico Nacional

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Atletico Nacional

G. Cano 89' (pen)

V. Hernández 84'

P. Ceppelini 45+2'

H. Barcos 32'

J. Barrera 19'

9/8/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 10Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Independiente Medellin44%

×Draw29%

Atletico Nacional28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.95

Independiente Medellin

1.27

Atletico Nacional

0.95

Independiente Medellin creates 34% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 19 away

1.45

creates per match

1.15

0.75

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.45

Atletico Nacional

1.15

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.75

Atletico Nacional

1.10

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.03on par

Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

72%

Independiente Medellin or Atletico Nacional

71%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

56%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

20%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

72%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

36%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

61%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

25%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

61%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.45 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

44%

level

29%

Atletico Nacional scores more

28%

Independiente Medellin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

P. Ceppelini

Atletico Nacional · F

8.3

Match Events

9'

Daniel Bocanegra

19'

J. Barrera↳ P. Ceppelini

21'

Jesus Murillo

22'

Sebastian Macias

32'

H. Barcos↳ P. Ceppelini

45+2'

P. Ceppelini↳ H. Palacios

46'

D. Quiñónes← D. Herazo

46'

E. Mosquera← B. Castrillón

46'

C. Blanco← B. Perlaza

49'

62'

70'

71'

76'

S. Gómez← P. Ceppelini

83'

Elvis Perlaza

84'

V. Hernández↳ Y. Candelo

89'

G. CanoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteAtletico

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots15

4Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots15

6On Target7

6Off Target5

4Blocked3

13Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

396Total Passes484

336Accurate Passes413

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls14

5Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Primera A: Independiente Medellin 1–4 Atletico Nacional

Atletico Nacional beat Independiente Medellin 4-1 in Primera A on September 8, 2019.

Goals: J. Barrera (19'), H. Barcos (32'), P. Ceppelini (45+2'), V. Hernández (84'), G. Cano (89' pen).

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.

Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Independiente Medellin 1–4 Atletico Nacional