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Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
12/4/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 5Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 185+ matches

Atletico Nacional51%
×Draw25%
Independiente Medellin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.59
Independiente Medellin
0.99

Atletico Nacional creates 61% more chances

Season form · 193 home / 185 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.83
Independiente Medellin
1.16

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.83
Independiente Medellin
1.35

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
76%
Atletico Nacional or Independiente Medellin
75%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
49%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
27%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
80%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
47%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
21%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
63%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
26%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
68%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 193 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.83 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.59

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
51%
level
25%
Independiente Medellin scores more
24%

Atletico Nacional at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 2–1 Independiente Medellin

Atletico Nacional beat Independiente Medellin 2-1 in Primera A on December 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.