Independiente Medellin 2–1 Atletico Nacional

Independiente Medellin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

L. Angulo 62'

G. Cano 14' (pen)

D. Moreno 89'

10/6/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Independiente Medellin45%

×Draw28%

Atletico Nacional27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.94

Independiente Medellin

1.31

Atletico Nacional

0.94

Independiente Medellin creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.53

creates per match

1.15

0.73

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.53

Atletico Nacional

1.15

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.73

Atletico Nacional

1.10

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.15scores less

Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

73%

Independiente Medellin or Atletico Nacional

72%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

55%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

21%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

73%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

38%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

61%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

24%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

63%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 13 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.53 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

45%

level

28%

Atletico Nacional scores more

27%

Independiente Medellin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Ricaurte

Independiente Medellin · M

7.5

Match Events

2'

Gonzalo Castellani

14'

G. CanoPenalty

16'

Y. Candelo← G. Castellani

38'

Germán Cano

39'

Alexis Henriquez

45'

Daniel Bocanegra

62'

L. Angulo↳ J. Caicedo

65'

J. Ramírez← C. Mafla

70'

William Parra

75'

Y. Anchico← L. Angulo

80'

Dayro Moreno

81'

Jorman Campuzano

83'

H. Palacios← Y. Candelo

86'

Y. Arenas← B. Castrillón

89'

D. Moreno↳ C. Rivas

90'

Jorge Segura

90+4'

L. Luna← J. Caicedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteAtletico

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots16

1Corners9

23Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots16

6On Target3

4Off Target8

3Blocked5

4Inside Box8

9Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

251Total Passes385

183Accurate Passes330

73%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

23Fouls20

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

1Offsides7

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional

Independiente Medellin beat Atletico Nacional 2-1 in Primera A on October 6, 2018.

Goals: G. Cano (14' pen), L. Angulo (62'), D. Moreno (89').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.

Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Nacional