Independiente FSJ 0–1 Cianorte: Result & Stats

Independiente FSJ

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cianorte

Juninho 62'

1/17/2024

League #606 · Group Stage - 1Estádio Municipal Cilmar Pedro Goergen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente FSJ5%

×Draw17%

Cianorte77%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente FSJExpected goals in this matchCianorte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.33

2.00

Independiente FSJ

0.33

Cianorte

2.00

Cianorte creates 506% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.33

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Independiente FSJ

0.33

Cianorte

2.00

allows per match

Independiente FSJ

2.00

Cianorte

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente FSJ+0.00on par

Cianorte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente FSJ ↓

Cianorte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–120%

0–220%

0–313%

0–47%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–01%

2–11%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente FSJ or draw

23%

Independiente FSJ or Cianorte

83%

Draw or Cianorte

95%

Winning margin

Independiente FSJ wins by 2+

1%

Cianorte wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Independiente FSJ 1+ goals

28%

Independiente FSJ 2+ goals

4%

Independiente FSJ 3+ goals

0%

Cianorte 1+ goals

86%

Cianorte 2+ goals

59%

Cianorte 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Independiente FSJ (draw refunded)

6%

Cianorte (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente FSJ at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Cianorte away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente FSJ attack 0.33 + Cianorte defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Cianorte attack 2.00 + Independiente FSJ defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Independiente FSJ scores more

5%

level

17%

Cianorte scores more

77%

Cianorte at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Tauan

41'

59'

Itaqui← Eltinho

59'

Raul← William

62'

Juninho

63'

Juninho

67'

Andre Krobel

68'

Lemes← Frank

68'

Bertram← Francis

71'

Negueba← Adriano Júnior

75'

Lucão← Filipe Alves

75'

Felipe Scharan← Breno

81'

Vinicius Faria

82'

Matheus Santana← Juninho

82'

Nicolas← Guilherme Beléa

86'

90+1'

Independiente

Cianorte

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Luciano Gusso

59'▲Itaqui←▼Eltinho

68'▲Lemes←▼Frank

68'▲Bertram←▼Francis

75'▲Lucão←▼Filipe Alves

75'▲Felipe Scharan←▼Breno

Independiente FSJ substitutes

ItaquiLemesBertramLucãoScharanEnricoVilarRildoGustavo

Manager: Zé Roberto

59'▲Raul←▼William

71'▲Negueba←▼Adriano Júnior

82'▲Matheus Santana←▼Juninho

82'▲Nicolas←▼Guilherme Beléa

Cianorte substitutes

RaulNeguebaSantanaNicolasTrindadeAllanCostaEugênioRios

League #606: Independiente FSJ 0–1 Cianorte

Cianorte beat Independiente FSJ 1-0 in League #606 on January 17, 2024.

Goals: Juninho (62').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Cilmar Pedro Goergen in São José dos Pinhais, Paraná.

Independiente FSJ vs Cianorte — League #606 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #606: Independiente FSJ 0–1 Cianorte