Independiente F.b.c. 3–0 Sportivo Iteno

Independiente F.b.c.

FT

3 – 0

Sportivo Iteno

F. Garcia 88'

E. Riveros 31'

M. Ferreira 26'

5/17/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 7Estadio Ricardo Gregor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Independiente F.b.c.51%

×Draw25%

Sportivo Iteno24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente F.b.c.Expected goals in this matchSportivo Iteno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.01

Independiente F.b.c.

1.59

Sportivo Iteno

1.01

Independiente F.b.c. creates 57% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 63 away

1.37

creates per match

0.98

1.04

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Independiente F.b.c.

1.37

Sportivo Iteno

0.98

allows per match

Independiente F.b.c.

1.04

Sportivo Iteno

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente F.b.c.+0.00on par

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente F.b.c. ↓

Sportivo Iteno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Independiente F.b.c. or draw

76%

Independiente F.b.c. or Sportivo Iteno

75%

Draw or Sportivo Iteno

49%

Winning margin

Independiente F.b.c. wins by 2+

27%

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente F.b.c. 1+ goals

80%

Independiente F.b.c. 2+ goals

47%

Independiente F.b.c. 3+ goals

21%

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals

64%

Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals

27%

Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente F.b.c. (draw refunded)

68%

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente F.b.c. at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.04 · 98 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente F.b.c. attack 1.37 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Independiente F.b.c. defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Independiente F.b.c. scores more

51%

level

25%

Sportivo Iteno scores more

24%

Independiente F.b.c. at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Independiente F.b.c. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Ferreira

31'

E. Riveros

88'

F. Garcia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff