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Independiente F.b.c. vs Guaraní de Fram — Division Intermedia 2019

Independiente F.b.c.
Independiente F.b.c.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guaraní de Fram
Guaraní de Fram
C. F. Gavilan Gonzalez 87'
S. Dietze 67'
9/20/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Ricardo Gregor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Independiente F.b.c.48%
×Draw27%
Guaraní de Fram25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente F.b.c.
1.42
Guaraní de Fram
0.96

Independiente F.b.c. creates 48% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 15 away

creates per match

Independiente F.b.c.
1.37
Guaraní de Fram
0.87

allows per match

Independiente F.b.c.
1.04
Guaraní de Fram
1.47

finishing

Independiente F.b.c.+0.00on par
Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente F.b.c. ↓

Guaraní de Fram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente F.b.c. or draw
75%
Independiente F.b.c. or Guaraní de Fram
73%
Draw or Guaraní de Fram
52%

Winning margin

Independiente F.b.c. wins by 2+
23%
Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Independiente F.b.c. 1+ goals
76%
Independiente F.b.c. 2+ goals
41%
Independiente F.b.c. 3+ goals
17%
Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals
62%
Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals
25%
Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Independiente F.b.c. (draw refunded)
65%
Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente F.b.c. at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.04 · 98 matches

Guaraní de Fram away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente F.b.c. attack 1.37 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Guaraní de Fram attack 0.87 + Independiente F.b.c. defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Independiente F.b.c. scores more
48%
level
27%
Guaraní de Fram scores more
25%

Independiente F.b.c. at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente F.b.c. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
S. Dietze
87'
C. F. Gavilan Gonzalez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Independiente F.b.c. 2–0 Guaraní de Fram

Independiente F.b.c. beat Guaraní de Fram 2-0 in Division Intermedia on September 20, 2025.

Goals: S. Dietze (67'), C. F. Gavilan Gonzalez (87').

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Gregor in Luque.