Independiente F.b.c. 1–1 Deportivo Capiata

Independiente F.b.c.

FT

1 – 1

Deportivo Capiata

7/15/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 18Estadio Ricardo Gregor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Independiente F.b.c.41%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Capiata30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente F.b.c.Expected goals in this matchDeportivo Capiata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.97

Independiente F.b.c.

1.20

Deportivo Capiata

0.97

Independiente F.b.c. creates 24% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 39 away

1.37

creates per match

0.90

1.04

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Independiente F.b.c.

1.37

Deportivo Capiata

0.90

allows per match

Independiente F.b.c.

1.04

Deportivo Capiata

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente F.b.c.+0.00on par

Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente F.b.c. ↓

Deportivo Capiata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independiente F.b.c. or draw

70%

Independiente F.b.c. or Deportivo Capiata

71%

Draw or Deportivo Capiata

59%

Winning margin

Independiente F.b.c. wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Independiente F.b.c. 1+ goals

70%

Independiente F.b.c. 2+ goals

34%

Independiente F.b.c. 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente F.b.c. (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente F.b.c. at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.04 · 98 matches

Deportivo Capiata away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente F.b.c. attack 1.37 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Deportivo Capiata attack 0.90 + Independiente F.b.c. defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Independiente F.b.c. scores more

41%

level

29%

Deportivo Capiata scores more

30%

Independiente F.b.c. at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Independiente F.b.c. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff