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Independiente del Valle vs Vasco DA Gama — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
P. Mercado 82', 49'
C. Spinelli 51'
M. Carabajal 45'
7/16/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Knockout Round Play-offsOlimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Independiente del Valle61%
×Draw22%
Vasco DA Gama17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.90
Vasco DA Gama
0.88

Independiente del Valle creates 116% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.50
Vasco DA Gama
1.00

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.75
Vasco DA Gama
2.29

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
83%
Independiente del Valle or Vasco DA Gama
78%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
39%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
36%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
85%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
56%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
29%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
59%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
22%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
78%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.50 + Vasco DA Gama defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
61%
level
22%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
17%

Independiente del Valle at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
P. MercadoIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle · M
9.9

Match Events

11'
Lucas PitonCard upgrade
12'
Lucas Piton
15'
Victor Luis← GB
37'
Hugo Moura
44'
Jordy Alcivar
45'
M. Carabajal
46'
M. Lemos← N. Moreira
49'
P. Mercado
51'
C. Spinelli↳ R. Briones
61'
Ronald Briones
63'
A. Rodriguez← R. Briones
69'
L. Loor← G. Cortez
69'
J. Mendez← J. Alcivar
69'
Cazares← D. Guagua
71'
Léo Jardim
71'
David← Rayan
82'
P. Mercado
86'
Claudio SpinelliGoal cancelled
87'
E. Pata← R. Ibarra
87'
Paulinho Paula← Tche Tche
87'
B. Garre← P. Vegetti

Possession

78%Independiente

Shots

33Independiente

Pass accuracy

61%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteVasco
Overview
78%Possession22%
33Total Shots5
5.65Expected Goals (xG)0.64
8Corners1
10Fouls6
Shots
33Total Shots5
13On Target3
10Off Target1
10Blocked1
19Inside Box3
14Outside Box2
Passing
78%Possession22%
486Total Passes141
444Accurate Passes83
91%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
3Saves9
Discipline
10Fouls6
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente del Valle 4–0 Vasco DA Gama

Independiente del Valle beat Vasco DA Gama 4-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 16, 2025.

Goals: M. Carabajal (45'), P. Mercado (49', 82'), C. Spinelli (51').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (78%) and registered 33 shots to 5.

The match was played at Olimpico Atahualpa in Quito.