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Independiente del Valle vs River Plate — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
River Plate
River Plate
4/24/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Independiente del Valle53%
×Draw23%
River Plate24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.79
River Plate
1.11

Independiente del Valle creates 61% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 35 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
2.28
River Plate
1.43

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.80
River Plate
1.31

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
76%
Independiente del Valle or River Plate
77%
Draw or River Plate
47%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
30%
River Plate wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
83%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
53%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
26%
River Plate 1+ goals
67%
River Plate 2+ goals
30%
River Plate 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
69%
River Plate (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + River Plate defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.79

River Plate attack 1.43 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
53%
level
23%
River Plate scores more
24%

Independiente del Valle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs River Plate

Independiente del Valle and River Plate drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.